Dealing with Data Uncertainty in Conservation Planning

Conservation planning analyses often employ data on biodiversity and sometimes vulnerability and these data are generally assumed to be accurate and correct. Here, different ways of exploring uncertainty associated with typical input data used for conservation planning are illustrated. First the uncertainty associated with predicted species distribution data is measured, summarised, and visualised. Second the uncertainty associated with the choice of vulnerability model is evaluated using Bayesian Model Averaging and the implication of this uncertainty on inference about key relationships associated with native forest conversion is assessed. The approaches used to assess uncertainty are applicable to any conservation planning exercise and such assessments will increase confidence in the products developed and reduce the risk that conservation effort is misdirected.